Look at the monthly chart of EURO/USD.
Low 0.64552 (Feb-1985) – high 1.4575 (Aug-1992) :up trend, period 7.5 years.
High 1.4575 (Aug-1992) – Low 0.82200 (Oct-2000) :down trend, period 8.17 years.
Low 0.82200 (Oct-2000) – High 1.60380 (Jul-2008):up trend, period 7.75 year.
Then, suppose, now is kept on down trend (more economic news and policy , business deal and technical chart back up this down trend prediction), we assume the target value of EURO/USD as what I posed year(s) before is 0.88 :-
High 1.60380 (Jul-2008) – low 0.88 (which year ?)
As observations, down trend is around 8 year, up trend is around 7.5 year, the starting year of this down trend is Jul-2008 , then the end of the trend shall be year 2016-2017 ! Apart from today only 3 full year and more. Now EURO/USD 1.22802. From 1.22802 to 0.88 , total 0.34802 reduction (28% deprecation) within 3 year. Is it too fast and reasonable ?
If you looking back at last down trend period Aug-1992 to Oct-2000, within the last four years of the cycle, EURO still went 1 year retrace and then drop to lowest point (0.82200). 1.0428 (Aug 1997) retraced to 1.24020 (Oct 1998), it took 1.3year. After that, it dropped to 0.8800 on Oct 2000 (2 years). That is to say, within 3.3 year it went through a retrace and then a last drop of 29%. Hence from now, end of year 2014 to end of year 2017 or beginning of 2018, there is a possible of 1 year up trace and 2 year down trend.
However, this assumption will treat as confirm by me only if EURO/USD first breakdown 1.15.
Coincidently, it matches with what I have predicted dollar rate breakup above 90 and then retracement. A break of dollar rate of 90 will trigger a targert for 104. After EURO/USD reaches 0.88, my next assumption will be up trend and target for EURO/USD 2.0 .
Finally if you relate EURO/USD monthly chart with Gold/USD monthly chart, you will find that they are with the same pace. i.e. EURO down , Gold down. Euro up, Gold up. If Euro is 0.88 on the chart, Gold is around 650- 700 ! A more drop then my previous assumption of Gold target for 980 ! But 650-700 assumption will be under observation before decision make.
Will you buy EURO at 0.88 for 127% return after 2017 for another 8 years investment ?